[JSR] Jonathan's Space Report, No. 647
Jonathan McDowell
jcm at planet4589.org
Sun Sep 25 18:55:33 EDT 2011
Jonathan's Space Report
No. 647 2011 Sep 25 Somerville, MA, USA
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UARS
----
NASA's UARS satellite reentered on Sep 24. The Upper Atmosphere Research
Satellite was deployed in 1991 from the Space Shuttle Discovery on
mission STS-48. UARS studied the depletion of the ozone layer, confirming
that CFCs cause the `ozone hole', and improved models of upper atmosphere
chemistry, including studies of methane in the Antarctic, sulphur dioxide
from volcanoes, and global wind measurements.
UARS reportedly began entering the atmosphere over the Pacific but the
exact time and location are not known. Reports of debris entry over
Canada are unconfirmed, and my best conclusion bast on these estimates
and the absence of confirmed observations over the west coast is that
entry was probably over the Pacific SE to E of Hawaii around 0410-0415
UTC with the debris falling over a several hundred km range in the ocean
falling short of the Oregon/Washington coastline.
The official USSTRATCOM report says: "24 September. 04:16 UTC +/- 53
minutes ascending 30.9 N 218.9E over the Pacific." Be very careful with
this - they don't really mean that it reentered over the Pacific, just
that that is the midpoint of the range of uncertainty. So this
translates to 0323 UTC to 0509 UTC. At the NASA press conference, Nick
Johnson said he thought a +/- 20 minute range was probable so 0356 to
0436 UTC. During that period of time UARS would have passed from the
Pacific near New Zealand (0352), over the Pacific south of Hawaii
(0407), crossing into N America over Portland, Oregon (0418) and then up
over Canada, crossing the Labrador coast (0428) and then SE over the
Atlantic to Mauritania (0440).
I would have expected the DSP missile early warning satellites to have
detected infrared radiation from the entry - they do keep a close watch
on the eastern Pacific in case of a submarine-launched missile attack on
the US. It is a bit surprising to me that there's apparently no
information from that source - or at least none that's been admitted.
Note that ROSAT, which will reenter later this year, is much less massive
overall but has larger parts that will survive reentry.
Large Uncontrolled Reentries
-----------------------------
Here's a list of big things falling from orbit - excluding
controlled deorbits - in order of mass (my best estimate of mass at reentry time).
Name Reentry date Metric Reentry Location Type of spacecraft
tons
Skylab 1979 Jul 11 76 31.8S 124.4E Australia Space station
Polyus 1987 May 15 70? Pacific Test satellite
Saturn S-II-13 1975 Jan 11 49 34N 19W Atlantic Rocket stage
DOS-6 (Salyut-7/K1686) 1991 Feb 7 40 34.9S 63.8W Argentina Space station
Kosmos-1917/1918/1919 1988 Feb 17 22? Navsats/rocket stage
DOS-3 (Kosmos-557) 1973 May 22 19 Indian Ocean Space station
Almaz OPS-1 (Salyut-2) 1973 May 28 19 Pacific Space station
Apollo BP-15/Saturn SA-7 1964 Sep 22 18 26.4S 69.0E Indian Ocean Dummy spaceship/Rocket stage
3MS 170 (Kosmos-419) 1971 May 12 18? Mars Probe/Rocket stage
Kosmos-154 (L-1) 1967 Apr 19 18? Atlantic Moonship/Rocket stage
Saturn SA-5 1966 Apr 30 17 Brazil Rocket stage/Nosecone
Proton-4 1969 Jul 24 17 Research satellite
Kosmos-305/Blok-D 1969 Oct 22 17? Australia? Moon probe/rocket stage
Blok DM-2 No. 17L 1987 Feb 13 17? Rocket stage
Apollo BP-13/Saturn SA-6 1964 Jun 1 17 13.6N 179E Pacific Dummy spaceship/rocket stage
Proton UR-500 No. 207 1965 Sep 18 13 Rocket stage
Proton UR-500 No. 209 1966 Jan 4 13 Rocket stage
Proton UR-500 No. 212 1966 Aug 21 13 Rocket stage
Saturn S-IVB-204 1968 Jan 23 13 Australia Rocket stage
HS-601 Model/CZ-2E 1990 Oct 1 13? Dummy comms sat/stage
Proton-3 (N-4 No 4) 1966 Sep 16 12 Research satellite
Saturn S-IVB-502 1968 Apr 26 12 Rocket stage
Lunar Module LTA-2R 1968 Sep 3 12 Pacific Dummy spaceship
Saturn S-IVB-205 1968 Oct 18 12 Indian Ocean Rocket stage
Blok-D 1969 Sep 27 11? Rocket stage
Pegasus 1/SA-9 1978 Sep 17 10 7S 15E Angola Rocket stage/science sat
Pegasus 2/SA-8 1979 Nov 3 10 Atlantic Rocket stage/science sat
Pegasus 3/SA-10 1969 Aug 4 10 3.4N 56.7E Indian Ocean Rocket stage/science sat
82LB72 LVI-1 1976 Dec 23 10? Dummy spaceship
82LB72 LVI-3 1978 Mar 23 10? Dummy spaceship
82LB72 LVI-4 1979 Jun 16 10? Dummy spaceship
EPN 3.695 (Kosmos-1871) 1987 Aug 10 10? Dummy spy satellite
EPN 3.695 (Kosmos-1873) 1987 Sep 14 10? Dummy spy satellite
Some of the above list represent rocket stages that got stranded in low orbit
with all their fuel aboard. It's possible that in some cases the fuel got vented before
reentry, in which case the mass would be much less. Kosmos-1917-1918-1919 is
one example. A few examples, like Polyus, were propulsive deorbits done
accidentally, which I count as 'uncontrolled'.
Notorious reentries of smaller satellites
-----------------------------------------
Mars-96 1996 Nov 17 7 Bolivia Mars probe
Kosmos-954 1978 Jan 24 4? (Nuclear reactor) Canada Spy satellite
Kosmos-1402 1983 Jan 23 4 (Nuclear reactor) Indian Ocean Spy satellite
Solar Max 1989 Dec 2 2 Indian Ocean Astronomy sat
CORONA 1014 1964 Dec 6 2 Venezuela Spy satellite
USA 193 2008 Feb 21 2 (destroyed by ASAT to prevent reentry)
Large controlled destructive reentries
---------------------------------------
Add to this list: 134 Shuttle External Tanks, 30t each
60 Ariane EPC stages, 12 to 14t each
2 Energiya core stages, 80? t each
which completed less than 1 complete orbit.
Mir 2001 Mar 23 120 Pacific Space station
Columbia (STS-107) 2003 Feb 1 106 Texas Spaceship
Salyut-6/Kosmos-1267 1982 Jul 29 35 Pacific Space station
Saturn S-IVB-501/LTA-10R 1967 Nov 9 30? W Pacific Rocket stage/dummy spaceship
Salyut-5 1977 Aug 8 19 Pacific Space station
Salyut-1 1971 Oct 11 19 Pacific Space station
Salyut-3 1975 Jan 24 19 Pacific Space station
Salyut-4 1977 Feb 2 19 Pacific Space station
ATV Jules Verne 2008 Sep 29 19? Pacific Cargo ship
ATV Johannes Kepler 2011 Jun 21 19? Pacific Cargo ship
Kosmos-1870 (Mech-K) 1989 Jul 29 18? Pacific Radar satellite
Almaz-1 (Mech-KU) 1992 Oct 17 18? Pacific Radar satellite
HTV-1 2009 Nov 1 16? Pacific Cargo ship
HTV-2 2011 Mar 30 16? Pacific Cargo ship
Kosmos-929 (TKS) 1978 Feb 2 15 Pacific Cargo ship
Kosmos-1443 1983 Sep 19 15 Pacific Cargo ship
GRO 2000 Jun 4 15 Pacific Astronomy sat
LACROSSE 1 1997 Mar 25 14? Pacific? Spy satellite
LACROSSE 2 2011 Mar 26? 14? Pacific? Spy satellite
Saturn S-IVB-206 1973 May 25 14 31N 176W Pacific Rocket stage
Saturn S-IVB-207 1973 Jul 28 14 22N 177W Pacific Rocket stage
Saturn S-IVB-208 1973 Nov 16 14? 26N 170W Pacific Rocket stage
Saturn S-IVB-210 1975 Jul 16 14? 13N 177W Pacific Rocket stage
KH11-1 1979 Jan 28 13? Pacific? Spy satellite
KH11-2 1981 Aug 23 13? Pacific? Spy satellite
KH11-3 1982 Oct 30 13? Pacific? Spy satellite
KH11-4 1984 Nov 23 13? Pacific? Spy satellite
KH11-5 1985 Aug 13 13? Pacific? Spy satellite
CRYSTAL (USA 6) 1994 Oct 20 13? Pacific? Spy satellite
CRYSTAL (USA 27) 1992 Jun? 13? Pacific? Spy satellite
CRYSTAL (USA 33) 1996 May 13? Pacific? Spy satellite
CRYSTAL (USA 86) 2000 Jun 5 13? Pacific? Spy satellite
CRYSTAL (USA 116) 2008 Nov 18 13? Pacific? Spy satellite
Large sats blown up before reentry
-----------------------------------
Saturn S-IVB-203/AS-203 1966 Jul 15 15? Pieces found in Peru and Africa
Large sats with controlled landings
-------------------------------------
133 Space Shuttle flights 1981-2011 90-110
Buran OK-1K 1988 Nov 15 79
Large stuff still in orbit
---------------------------
International Space Station 410 +
LACROSSE (USA 133) - 15?
LACROSSE (USA 152) - 15?
LACROSSE (USA 182) - 15?
CRYSTAL (USA 129) - 14?
CRYSTAL (USA 161) - 14?
CRYSTAL (USA 186) - 14?
CRYSTAL (USA 224) - 14?
Hubble Space Telescope - 11
International Space Station
---------------------------
Soyuz TMA-21 undocked from the Poisk module at 0038 UTC on Sep 16
carrying Aleksandr Samokutyaev, Ron Garan and Andrey Borisenko.
Expedition 29 began at 0038 UTC on Sep 16 with Mike Fossum as commander,
and with flight engineers Sergey Volkov and Satoshi Furukawa.
Soyuz TMA-02M remains docked at the Station. Progress M-13M is scheduled
for launch Oct 31; Soyuz TMA-03M on Nov 12.
Soyuz statistics
-----------------
A reader has asked me to clarify that the Soyuz/Fregat which failed to
reach the correct orbit was due to procedures error (incorrect fuelling)
and was not a Fregat manufacturing or hardware failure. In general, I
have noticed anecdotally (small number statistics) that an increasing
number of failures have been due to procedural mistakes at launch time
(wrong amount of fuel, wrong software command, etc.), compared
to the old-school method of blowing the rocket up by getting the
plumbing wrong during manufacture. Another metric that would
be interesting to generate is to distinguish operator from manufacturer
errors, although this could be difficult - maybe inadequately clear
manufacturer's documentation is the root error for some operator
failures?
ZX-1A
-----
Following last month's launch failure, China has resumed successful flights.
The military communications satellite Zhongxing 1A (Chinasat 1A) was
launched on Sep 18 into geostationary transfer orbit using a Chang
Zheng (Long March) 3B.
Kosmos-2473
-----------
The first Garpun military communications satellite was launched on Sep
20 from Baykonur and given the cover name Kosmos-2473. Garpun is thought
to be a data relay satellite built by ISS Reshetnev. As of Sep 24 an
object from the launch (perhaps the Briz-M DTB tank) was being tracked
by the US in a 402 x 35586 km x 48.6 deg transfer orbit; it is reported
from Russian sources that the payload is actually in geosynchronous orbit.
Ariane 5
--------
The Arabsat 5C and SES-2 satellites were launched on Sep 21 by vehicle
561. Arabsat 5C is an Astrium/Thales Eurostar 3000 C-band/Ka-band
communications satellite for Arab countries. SES-2 is an Orbital
Star-2.4 satellite for SES World Skies. The satellite carries a
communications payload with 24 C-band and 24 Ku-band transponders, and a
US Air Force infrared surveillance sensor experiment. The satellites
were deployed into a 250 x 35700 km x 1.9 deg transfer orbit.
IGS O-4
-------
On Sep 23 JAXA launched the IGS Optical-4 (Jouhou shuushuu eisei kougaku
4 gouki) satellite to replenish Japan's imaging spy satellite
constellation.
Atlantic Bird 7
---------------
Eutelsat's Atlantic Bird 7 communications satellite, an Astrium Eurostar
3000, was launched into geostationary transfer orbit on Sep 24 by a
Zenit-3SL rocket. This was the first launch by the new Sea Launch
company, which is 95 percent owned by RKK Energia. The old Sea Launch,
which declared bankruptcy, was a joint venture led by Boeing involving
Yuzhnoe, who build the Zenit-2SB core vehicle, Energia who build the
Blok DM-SL third stage and Kvaerner who built the floating launch
platform. There were 30 Sea Launch missions between 1999 and 2009.
KH-7/KH8/KH-9 declassification
-------------------------------
The NRO has declassified its film-return satellites GAMBIT and HEXAGON.
You may enjoy the images at http://planet4589.org/jcm/pics/11/gambit/index.html
The declassified docs are at http://planet4589.org/space/docs/nro
Table of Recent (orbital) Launches
----------------------------------
Date UT Name Launch Vehicle Site Mission INTL.
DES.
Aug 3 1843 Radioskaf-V - EVA, ISS Comms 98-67CK
Aug 5 1625 Juno Atlas 551 Canaveral SLC41 Probe 40A
Aug 6 2252 Astra 1N ) Ariane 5ECA Kourou ELA3 Comms 41A
BSAT 3c ) Comms 41B
Aug 10 1615 Paksat 1R Chang Zheng 3B Xichang Comms 42A
Aug 15 2257 Haiyang 2 Chang Zheng 4B Taiyuan LC2 Rem.Sens. 43A
Aug 17 0712 NigeriaSat-X) Tech 44C
NigeriaSat-2) Imaging 44B
Edusat ) Tech 44A
Sich-2 ) Dnepr Yasniy Rem.Sens. 44G
Rasat ) Imaging 44D
AprizeSat-5 ) Comms/AIS 44E
AprizeSat-6 ) Comms/AIS 44F
BPA-2 ) Tech 44H
Aug 17 2125 Ekspress AM-4 Proton-M/Briz-M Baykonur Comms 45A
Aug 18 0928 SJ11-04 Chang Zheng 2C Jiuquan Unknown F02
Aug 24 1300 Progress M-12M Soyuz-U Baykonur Cargo F03
Sep 10 1308 GRAIL-A ) Delta 7920H Canaveral SLC17B Lunar 46A
GRAIL-B ) Lunar 46B
Sep 18 1633 Zhongxing 1A Chang Zheng 3B(E?) Xichang Comms 47A
Sep 20 2247 Kosmos-2473 Proton-M/Briz-M Baykonur Comms 48A
Sep 21 2138 Arabsat 5C ) Ariane 5ECA Kourou ELA3 Comms 49A
SES 2 ) Comms 49B
Sep 23 0436 IGS O-4 H-2A 202 Tanegashima Imaging 50A
Sep 24 2018 Atlantic Bird 7 Zenit-3SL SL Odyssey, Pacific Comms 51A?
Table of Recent (suborbital) Launches
----------------------------------
Date UT Payload/Flt Name Launch Vehicle Site Mission Apogee/km
Aug 11 1445 HTV-2b Minotaur 4 Lite Vandenberg SLC8 Test 100?
Aug 27 0320 RV x 6? Bulava K-535, White Sea Test 1000?
Sep 1 1343 ARAV? Terrier Oriole? Kauai Target 150?
Sep 1 1344 Aegis KV SM-3 Block 1B CG-70, Kauai Interceptor 150?
Sep 3 0946 RV Topol' Plesetsk Test 1000?
.-------------------------------------------------------------------------.
| Jonathan McDowell | phone : (617) 495-7176 |
| Somerville MA 02143 | inter : planet4589 at gmail |
| USA | jcm at cfa.harvard.edu |
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