Jonathan's Space Report No. 647 2011 Sep 25 Somerville, MA, USA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UARS ---- NASA's UARS satellite reentered on Sep 24. The Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite was deployed in 1991 from the Space Shuttle Discovery on mission STS-48. UARS studied the depletion of the ozone layer, confirming that CFCs cause the `ozone hole', and improved models of upper atmosphere chemistry, including studies of methane in the Antarctic, sulphur dioxide from volcanoes, and global wind measurements. UARS reportedly began entering the atmosphere over the Pacific but the exact time and location are not known. Reports of debris entry over Canada are unconfirmed, and my best conclusion bast on these estimates and the absence of confirmed observations over the west coast is that entry was probably over the Pacific SE to E of Hawaii around 0410-0415 UTC with the debris falling over a several hundred km range in the ocean falling short of the Oregon/Washington coastline. The official USSTRATCOM report says: "24 September. 04:16 UTC +/- 53 minutes ascending 30.9 N 218.9E over the Pacific." Be very careful with this - they don't really mean that it reentered over the Pacific, just that that is the midpoint of the range of uncertainty. So this translates to 0323 UTC to 0509 UTC. At the NASA press conference, Nick Johnson said he thought a +/- 20 minute range was probable so 0356 to 0436 UTC. During that period of time UARS would have passed from the Pacific near New Zealand (0352), over the Pacific south of Hawaii (0407), crossing into N America over Portland, Oregon (0418) and then up over Canada, crossing the Labrador coast (0428) and then SE over the Atlantic to Mauritania (0440). I would have expected the DSP missile early warning satellites to have detected infrared radiation from the entry - they do keep a close watch on the eastern Pacific in case of a submarine-launched missile attack on the US. It is a bit surprising to me that there's apparently no information from that source - or at least none that's been admitted. Note that ROSAT, which will reenter later this year, is much less massive overall but has larger parts that will survive reentry. Large Uncontrolled Reentries ----------------------------- Here's a list of big things falling from orbit - excluding controlled deorbits - in order of mass (my best estimate of mass at reentry time). Name Reentry date Metric Reentry Location Type of spacecraft tons Skylab 1979 Jul 11 76 31.8S 124.4E Australia Space station Polyus 1987 May 15 70? Pacific Test satellite Saturn S-II-13 1975 Jan 11 49 34N 19W Atlantic Rocket stage DOS-6 (Salyut-7/K1686) 1991 Feb 7 40 34.9S 63.8W Argentina Space station Kosmos-1917/1918/1919 1988 Feb 17 22? Navsats/rocket stage DOS-3 (Kosmos-557) 1973 May 22 19 Indian Ocean Space station Almaz OPS-1 (Salyut-2) 1973 May 28 19 Pacific Space station Apollo BP-15/Saturn SA-7 1964 Sep 22 18 26.4S 69.0E Indian Ocean Dummy spaceship/Rocket stage 3MS 170 (Kosmos-419) 1971 May 12 18? Mars Probe/Rocket stage Kosmos-154 (L-1) 1967 Apr 19 18? Atlantic Moonship/Rocket stage Saturn SA-5 1966 Apr 30 17 Brazil Rocket stage/Nosecone Proton-4 1969 Jul 24 17 Research satellite Kosmos-305/Blok-D 1969 Oct 22 17? Australia? Moon probe/rocket stage Blok DM-2 No. 17L 1987 Feb 13 17? Rocket stage Apollo BP-13/Saturn SA-6 1964 Jun 1 17 13.6N 179E Pacific Dummy spaceship/rocket stage Proton UR-500 No. 207 1965 Sep 18 13 Rocket stage Proton UR-500 No. 209 1966 Jan 4 13 Rocket stage Proton UR-500 No. 212 1966 Aug 21 13 Rocket stage Saturn S-IVB-204 1968 Jan 23 13 Australia Rocket stage HS-601 Model/CZ-2E 1990 Oct 1 13? Dummy comms sat/stage Proton-3 (N-4 No 4) 1966 Sep 16 12 Research satellite Saturn S-IVB-502 1968 Apr 26 12 Rocket stage Lunar Module LTA-2R 1968 Sep 3 12 Pacific Dummy spaceship Saturn S-IVB-205 1968 Oct 18 12 Indian Ocean Rocket stage Blok-D 1969 Sep 27 11? Rocket stage Pegasus 1/SA-9 1978 Sep 17 10 7S 15E Angola Rocket stage/science sat Pegasus 2/SA-8 1979 Nov 3 10 Atlantic Rocket stage/science sat Pegasus 3/SA-10 1969 Aug 4 10 3.4N 56.7E Indian Ocean Rocket stage/science sat 82LB72 LVI-1 1976 Dec 23 10? Dummy spaceship 82LB72 LVI-3 1978 Mar 23 10? Dummy spaceship 82LB72 LVI-4 1979 Jun 16 10? Dummy spaceship EPN 3.695 (Kosmos-1871) 1987 Aug 10 10? Dummy spy satellite EPN 3.695 (Kosmos-1873) 1987 Sep 14 10? Dummy spy satellite Some of the above list represent rocket stages that got stranded in low orbit with all their fuel aboard. It's possible that in some cases the fuel got vented before reentry, in which case the mass would be much less. Kosmos-1917-1918-1919 is one example. A few examples, like Polyus, were propulsive deorbits done accidentally, which I count as 'uncontrolled'. Notorious reentries of smaller satellites ----------------------------------------- Mars-96 1996 Nov 17 7 Bolivia Mars probe Kosmos-954 1978 Jan 24 4? (Nuclear reactor) Canada Spy satellite Kosmos-1402 1983 Jan 23 4 (Nuclear reactor) Indian Ocean Spy satellite Solar Max 1989 Dec 2 2 Indian Ocean Astronomy sat CORONA 1014 1964 Dec 6 2 Venezuela Spy satellite USA 193 2008 Feb 21 2 (destroyed by ASAT to prevent reentry) Large controlled destructive reentries --------------------------------------- Add to this list: 134 Shuttle External Tanks, 30t each 60 Ariane EPC stages, 12 to 14t each 2 Energiya core stages, 80? t each which completed less than 1 complete orbit. Mir 2001 Mar 23 120 Pacific Space station Columbia (STS-107) 2003 Feb 1 106 Texas Spaceship Salyut-6/Kosmos-1267 1982 Jul 29 35 Pacific Space station Saturn S-IVB-501/LTA-10R 1967 Nov 9 30? W Pacific Rocket stage/dummy spaceship Salyut-5 1977 Aug 8 19 Pacific Space station Salyut-1 1971 Oct 11 19 Pacific Space station Salyut-3 1975 Jan 24 19 Pacific Space station Salyut-4 1977 Feb 2 19 Pacific Space station ATV Jules Verne 2008 Sep 29 19? Pacific Cargo ship ATV Johannes Kepler 2011 Jun 21 19? Pacific Cargo ship Kosmos-1870 (Mech-K) 1989 Jul 29 18? Pacific Radar satellite Almaz-1 (Mech-KU) 1992 Oct 17 18? Pacific Radar satellite HTV-1 2009 Nov 1 16? Pacific Cargo ship HTV-2 2011 Mar 30 16? Pacific Cargo ship Kosmos-929 (TKS) 1978 Feb 2 15 Pacific Cargo ship Kosmos-1443 1983 Sep 19 15 Pacific Cargo ship GRO 2000 Jun 4 15 Pacific Astronomy sat LACROSSE 1 1997 Mar 25 14? Pacific? Spy satellite LACROSSE 2 2011 Mar 26? 14? Pacific? Spy satellite Saturn S-IVB-206 1973 May 25 14 31N 176W Pacific Rocket stage Saturn S-IVB-207 1973 Jul 28 14 22N 177W Pacific Rocket stage Saturn S-IVB-208 1973 Nov 16 14? 26N 170W Pacific Rocket stage Saturn S-IVB-210 1975 Jul 16 14? 13N 177W Pacific Rocket stage KH11-1 1979 Jan 28 13? Pacific? Spy satellite KH11-2 1981 Aug 23 13? Pacific? Spy satellite KH11-3 1982 Oct 30 13? Pacific? Spy satellite KH11-4 1984 Nov 23 13? Pacific? Spy satellite KH11-5 1985 Aug 13 13? Pacific? Spy satellite CRYSTAL (USA 6) 1994 Oct 20 13? Pacific? Spy satellite CRYSTAL (USA 27) 1992 Jun? 13? Pacific? Spy satellite CRYSTAL (USA 33) 1996 May 13? Pacific? Spy satellite CRYSTAL (USA 86) 2000 Jun 5 13? Pacific? Spy satellite CRYSTAL (USA 116) 2008 Nov 18 13? Pacific? Spy satellite Large sats blown up before reentry ----------------------------------- Saturn S-IVB-203/AS-203 1966 Jul 15 15? Pieces found in Peru and Africa Large sats with controlled landings ------------------------------------- 133 Space Shuttle flights 1981-2011 90-110 Buran OK-1K 1988 Nov 15 79 Large stuff still in orbit --------------------------- International Space Station 410 + LACROSSE (USA 133) - 15? LACROSSE (USA 152) - 15? LACROSSE (USA 182) - 15? CRYSTAL (USA 129) - 14? CRYSTAL (USA 161) - 14? CRYSTAL (USA 186) - 14? CRYSTAL (USA 224) - 14? Hubble Space Telescope - 11 International Space Station --------------------------- Soyuz TMA-21 undocked from the Poisk module at 0038 UTC on Sep 16 carrying Aleksandr Samokutyaev, Ron Garan and Andrey Borisenko. Expedition 29 began at 0038 UTC on Sep 16 with Mike Fossum as commander, and with flight engineers Sergey Volkov and Satoshi Furukawa. Soyuz TMA-02M remains docked at the Station. Progress M-13M is scheduled for launch Oct 31; Soyuz TMA-03M on Nov 12. Soyuz statistics ----------------- A reader has asked me to clarify that the Soyuz/Fregat which failed to reach the correct orbit was due to procedures error (incorrect fuelling) and was not a Fregat manufacturing or hardware failure. In general, I have noticed anecdotally (small number statistics) that an increasing number of failures have been due to procedural mistakes at launch time (wrong amount of fuel, wrong software command, etc.), compared to the old-school method of blowing the rocket up by getting the plumbing wrong during manufacture. Another metric that would be interesting to generate is to distinguish operator from manufacturer errors, although this could be difficult - maybe inadequately clear manufacturer's documentation is the root error for some operator failures? ZX-1A ----- Following last month's launch failure, China has resumed successful flights. The military communications satellite Zhongxing 1A (Chinasat 1A) was launched on Sep 18 into geostationary transfer orbit using a Chang Zheng (Long March) 3B. Kosmos-2473 ----------- The first Garpun military communications satellite was launched on Sep 20 from Baykonur and given the cover name Kosmos-2473. Garpun is thought to be a data relay satellite built by ISS Reshetnev. As of Sep 24 an object from the launch (perhaps the Briz-M DTB tank) was being tracked by the US in a 402 x 35586 km x 48.6 deg transfer orbit; it is reported from Russian sources that the payload is actually in geosynchronous orbit. Ariane 5 -------- The Arabsat 5C and SES-2 satellites were launched on Sep 21 by vehicle 561. Arabsat 5C is an Astrium/Thales Eurostar 3000 C-band/Ka-band communications satellite for Arab countries. SES-2 is an Orbital Star-2.4 satellite for SES World Skies. The satellite carries a communications payload with 24 C-band and 24 Ku-band transponders, and a US Air Force infrared surveillance sensor experiment. The satellites were deployed into a 250 x 35700 km x 1.9 deg transfer orbit. IGS O-4 ------- On Sep 23 JAXA launched the IGS Optical-4 (Jouhou shuushuu eisei kougaku 4 gouki) satellite to replenish Japan's imaging spy satellite constellation. Atlantic Bird 7 --------------- Eutelsat's Atlantic Bird 7 communications satellite, an Astrium Eurostar 3000, was launched into geostationary transfer orbit on Sep 24 by a Zenit-3SL rocket. This was the first launch by the new Sea Launch company, which is 95 percent owned by RKK Energia. The old Sea Launch, which declared bankruptcy, was a joint venture led by Boeing involving Yuzhnoe, who build the Zenit-2SB core vehicle, Energia who build the Blok DM-SL third stage and Kvaerner who built the floating launch platform. There were 30 Sea Launch missions between 1999 and 2009. KH-7/KH8/KH-9 declassification ------------------------------- The NRO has declassified its film-return satellites GAMBIT and HEXAGON. You may enjoy the images at http://planet4589.org/jcm/pics/11/gambit/index.html The declassified docs are at http://planet4589.org/space/docs/nro Table of Recent (orbital) Launches ---------------------------------- Date UT Name Launch Vehicle Site Mission INTL. DES. Aug 3 1843 Radioskaf-V - EVA, ISS Comms 98-67CK Aug 5 1625 Juno Atlas 551 Canaveral SLC41 Probe 40A Aug 6 2252 Astra 1N ) Ariane 5ECA Kourou ELA3 Comms 41A BSAT 3c ) Comms 41B Aug 10 1615 Paksat 1R Chang Zheng 3B Xichang Comms 42A Aug 15 2257 Haiyang 2 Chang Zheng 4B Taiyuan LC2 Rem.Sens. 43A Aug 17 0712 NigeriaSat-X) Tech 44C NigeriaSat-2) Imaging 44B Edusat ) Tech 44A Sich-2 ) Dnepr Yasniy Rem.Sens. 44G Rasat ) Imaging 44D AprizeSat-5 ) Comms/AIS 44E AprizeSat-6 ) Comms/AIS 44F BPA-2 ) Tech 44H Aug 17 2125 Ekspress AM-4 Proton-M/Briz-M Baykonur Comms 45A Aug 18 0928 SJ11-04 Chang Zheng 2C Jiuquan Unknown F02 Aug 24 1300 Progress M-12M Soyuz-U Baykonur Cargo F03 Sep 10 1308 GRAIL-A ) Delta 7920H Canaveral SLC17B Lunar 46A GRAIL-B ) Lunar 46B Sep 18 1633 Zhongxing 1A Chang Zheng 3B(E?) Xichang Comms 47A Sep 20 2247 Kosmos-2473 Proton-M/Briz-M Baykonur Comms 48A Sep 21 2138 Arabsat 5C ) Ariane 5ECA Kourou ELA3 Comms 49A SES 2 ) Comms 49B Sep 23 0436 IGS O-4 H-2A 202 Tanegashima Imaging 50A Sep 24 2018 Atlantic Bird 7 Zenit-3SL SL Odyssey, Pacific Comms 51A? Table of Recent (suborbital) Launches ---------------------------------- Date UT Payload/Flt Name Launch Vehicle Site Mission Apogee/km Aug 11 1445 HTV-2b Minotaur 4 Lite Vandenberg SLC8 Test 100? Aug 27 0320 RV x 6? Bulava K-535, White Sea Test 1000? Sep 1 1343 ARAV? Terrier Oriole? Kauai Target 150? Sep 1 1344 Aegis KV SM-3 Block 1B CG-70, Kauai Interceptor 150? Sep 3 0946 RV Topol' Plesetsk Test 1000? .-------------------------------------------------------------------------. | Jonathan McDowell | phone : (617) 495-7176 | | Somerville MA 02143 | inter : planet4589 at gmail | | USA | jcm@cfa.harvard.edu | | | | JSR: http://www.planet4589.org/jsr.html | | Back issues: http://www.planet4589.org/space/jsr/back | | Subscribe/unsub: http://www.planet4589.org/mailman/listinfo/jsr | '-------------------------------------------------------------------------'